Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b3293a367fed2f3df2042da2806b9a4d893095b80679c956428d142a386e45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 216.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 169.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 156$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 151.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 146.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 146.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 144$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 141.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 141.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 113$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 106.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 43c | 89.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 69c | 76.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 73.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 67c | 72.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 58c | 66.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 70c | 65.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 58.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 68c | 43.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 41.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 39.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 40c | 33.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 33.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 27.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 57c | 27.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked No | 55c | 22.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 75c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 17.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f6…fc6dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.