South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b4dbc23841e50b636ff2048491548fd2a3521abdde7d5dd71c68f55903d00e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 5,800$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…78ffbacked Under | 73c | 3,408$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,922$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.23 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 34c | 1,462$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 74c | 1,347$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.4 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 1,330$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.26 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 44c | 429.38$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 41c | 365.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.98 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 340.14$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.55 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 35c | 340$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 55c | 328.24$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.48 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 80c | 320.2$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 108 | 75%81 W · 27 L | +16.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked Over | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 43c | 256.4$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.29 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…b855backed Under | 37c | 241.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…efffbacked Over | 66c | 182.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Over | 37c | 159.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 66c | 155.18$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 10c | 126.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 67c | 123.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 57c | 114$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked Over | 36c | 110.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 59c | 61.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…dfb5backed Under | 32c | 55.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 41c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 71c | 47.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…6ac6backed Over | 66c | 44.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 31c | 40.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 63c | 38.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Under | 61c | 37.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c94…6ba9backed Over | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 43c | 35.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 70c | 27.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 66c | 26.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 4.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Clube do Remo (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.