Us Midterms · resolved market
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5928ae5dc678dd1d403083a52cf562697e882e421a27073da3fd302b61014b00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 1c | 2,273$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,701$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 3c | 796.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 739.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 3c | 621.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 9c | 532.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 8c | 439$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 340.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 6c | 302$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 5c | 289.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…fdabbacked Yes | 5c | 242.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 9c | 238.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 209.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 6c | 209.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…51f6backed Yes | 12c | 160.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 67c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?this page
- Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?No won
- Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.