Fifa International · resolved market
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59424a0e7ea4b7d245b36900dbd28282835e17a9c0823c04a174db5fa144497c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 26c | 1,394$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.91 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 77c | 1,179$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.41 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…3cd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 477.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…bdcfbacked Yes | 24c | 411.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 324.86$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 73c | 319.46$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…8b06backed No | 78c | 245.06$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3266backed Yes | 23c | 239.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…0d48backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…99e4backed Yes | 23c | 208$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 78c | 199.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 76c | 133.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 123.04$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…935cbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 79.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 68.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…49e6backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…77dcbacked Yes | 22c | 61.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa0…0520backed Yes | 23c | 51.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd3…1cf9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05eb…b6dabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 74c | 40.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 39.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 74c | 30.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 76c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- South Africa to score first vs. Mexico?this page
- Mexico to score first vs. South Africa?Yes won
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.