Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7ccb93dfeac244a646aefee0e7d988bddd92a6c0b74d1be3049c6d6e675435e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a9…7b35backed No | 29c | 7,173$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1f77backed Yes | 71c | 3,871$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…5b2cbacked Yes | 71c | 3,300$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 28c | 1,174$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.99 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 28c | 997.07$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.18 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 27c | 588.27$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Yes | 72c | 432.36$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.06 | 139 | 48.2%67 W · 72 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…7d66backed Yes | 73c | 340.92$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 28c | 332.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…d430backed Yes | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 216.55$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 26c | 199.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 24c | 188.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 70c | 181.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed No | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 27c | 163.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…a658backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0415…0ae5backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…2746backed Yes | 73c | 137.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 197 | 39.6%78 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3e…4cbcbacked Yes | 74c | 133.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…f0d8backed Yes | 72c | 129.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 103.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…a2d5backed Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…c6bbbacked Yes | 72c | 84.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e08…614fbacked Yes | 76c | 65.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 72c | 63.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked No | 25c | 61.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4505…ec35backed No | 27c | 56.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…2b8bbacked Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…2512backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…979bbacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 181 | 37.6%68 W · 113 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf3…4a20backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8194…ecd6backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…24b1backed Yes | 73c | 36.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…0983backed Yes | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0f…a1f9backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4e…4b04backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…3f21backed Yes | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fca…b025backed Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…097ebacked Yes | 72c | 29.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Yes | 70c | 29.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffaf…64c6backed Yes | 73c | 28.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…34d6backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…79ddbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6c…0bbabacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Yes | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…c454backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 76c | 26.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 231 | 24.7%57 W · 174 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478c…d24ebacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…be60backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 69c | 23.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…fa8fbacked Yes | 72c | 22.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c8…d5e4backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a99…b4c1backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…bb0cbacked Yes | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…b607backed Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829d…9656backed Yes | 76c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico to score first vs. South Africa?this page
- Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first?No won
- South Africa to score first vs. Mexico?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.