Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59424ae12b7a77fe0556459c99079eea60ed5a0457d371db801ab12bacee8aa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 41,728$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.28 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes | 1c | 899.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 40c | 538.56$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.78 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 451.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 445.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 217.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 9c | 184.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 24c | 173.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 152.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 149.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 24c | 113.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 37c | 112.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 79c | 109.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 78c | 93.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 55c | 90.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 84.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 76c | 70.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 68.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked No | 79c | 63.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 56.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…ca6fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 53.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 34.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 66c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 29.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 73c | 28.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 26.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 65c | 20.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.