World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59484d3dbccfd34a85c101fc09ebff20976aa130f8d3da76d9c3c259b19a4e39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 998.45$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.22 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 810.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 488.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.56 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 73c | 413.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 395.71$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.59 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 290.67$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.18 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 283.56$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 177.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 171$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 30c | 137.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 111.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 32c | 109.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 104.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 96.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 95.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 90.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 85.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 83.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 80.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 76.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 76.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 13c | 74.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +641%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 72c | 71.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 63.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 59.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 26c | 57.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 56.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 53.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 38c | 52.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 52.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 50.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 49.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 45.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 29c | 45.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 43.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed Yes | 67c | 42.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 72c | 41.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 74c | 41.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 73cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 39.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 35c | 37.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 53c | 37.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 51c | 37.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 34.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 45c | 28.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 62c | 23.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 23.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 74c | 21.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 17.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes | 70c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 14.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.