MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x594fe5f02f88deb77f523d2d20833b1d11bdc15d96b9c39b60b7f2a608de5824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Milwaukee Brewers, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 19c | 686$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 450.83$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 406.16$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 325.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 318.24$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 262.08$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 224.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Milwaukee Brewers | 8c | 221.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Milwaukee Brewers | 8c | 208.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 8c | 189.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 261 | 48.3%126 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 105.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 96.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 88.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 70.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…b204backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 50.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 40.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 24.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee BrewersToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.