MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74192f15fce2383ce3526c5fae453fe64f0a8c804b241dce7ee218c91c24c77b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 2,440$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.92 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 379.38$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 270.96$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 184$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 150.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 149.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 99.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 95.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 93.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 87.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 81.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 81.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 73.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 68.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 58.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 58.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 54.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 51.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 51.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 49.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 35.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 35.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 31.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 26.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 22.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee BrewersToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.