NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 245.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5951ad9bff8cc64dfb06e12b985618fda09aa98933d842c265120b5c7635a5b9

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $114,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $114,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,474 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9c16…09cbbacked Over	43c	76,076$32,411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32,410.67	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	57c	62,852$36,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,751.98	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	57c	15,771$8,943 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,828.48	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	5,755$2,810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,944.96	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Under	55c	5,567$3,067 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500.57	166	41%68 W · 98 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1428…017cbacked Over	51c	4,669$2,381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,381.21	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	50c	3,150$1,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,571.23	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over	50c	2,552$1,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,275.84	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Over	51c	2,100$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	55c	1,997$1,094 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$903.66	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Over	51c	1,828$933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$932.51	237	47.7%113 W · 124 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	46c	1,532$698 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$697.82	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	51c	1,416$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.78	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Over	51c	1,259$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.29	277	35%97 W · 180 L	-30.7wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	44c	910.95$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.71	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Over	53c	895.03$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.35	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	46c	500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	49c	414.45$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.37	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Under	49c	400.82$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.42	281	47.7%134 W · 147 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b0…5af4backed Over	40c	400$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	57c	363.04$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.35	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d2…5614backed Over	45c	353.85$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-29%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Under	60c	318.75$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.5	106	42.5%45 W · 61 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	45c	214.79$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.71	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	244	54.1%132 W · 112 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4728…f975backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.3wins	-0.17per pick	38cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under	63c	154.86$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.86	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over	45c	125$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.25	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Over	53c	113.3$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Under	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.29per pick	55cpaid	+55%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	44c	74.32$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.37	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	60c	66.67$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.67	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72e4…0369backed Over	43c	65.11$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da7…ff92backed Over	41c	49.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	44c	49.37$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Over	45c	44.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	48c	42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.74	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	48c	41.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	120	52.5%63 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	50c	39.14$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Over	34c	37.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Over	41c	36.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	234	38.9%91 W · 143 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	55c	31.64$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.2	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f82…0ffebacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under	56c	19.34$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.51	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 245.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event