TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 246.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,432 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf42…d698backed Over50c61,000$30,500 inLost-$30,50017031.8%54 W · 116 L-24.9wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under50c38,829$19,550 inWon+$19,279.331,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Under50c17,958$8,979 inWon+$8,978.941,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c2,675$1,337 inWon+$1,337.369,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under51c2,046$1,047 inWon+$999.3350347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under53c2,000$1,060 inWon+$94048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Over46c2,000$920 inLost-$92016633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over50c1,290$650 inLost-$650.153,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over50c900$450 inLost-$4502,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over47c638$300 inLost-$299.862,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under56c570.49$320 inWon+$250.248,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2f…3531backed Under54c553.07$299 inWon+$254.414351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over43c500.09$217 inLost-$2171,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under55c444$246 inWon+$198.142,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over47c401.96$189 inLost-$188.922,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under50c400$200 inWon+$2001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b0…5af4backed Under50c400$200 inWon+$2002944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under50c306$153 inWon+$15362347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under50c300$150 inWon+$15015543.2%67 W · 88 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over42c218.33$92 inLost-$92.0693849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2d2…5614backed Under50c200$100 inWon+$1003234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over48c148.11$71 inLost-$71.092,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Over48c145.83$70 inLost-$7023948.5%116 W · 123 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Under61c122.35$75 inWon+$47.1433258.7%195 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057b…2512backed Over53c100$53 inLost-$53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Over51c98.04$50 inLost-$5033246.1%153 W · 179 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under65c61.92$40 inWon+$21.922,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Over41c36.57$15 inLost-$14.9923438.9%91 W · 143 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under47c34.59$16 inWon+$18.311,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over36c30$11 inLost-$10.751,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Over42c27.64$12 inLost-$11.72552%13 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under53c20$11 inWon+$9.41,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.