NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fac3a4097e67e445089f77db832ad0e9c19730136c7464616c182dbcbf36ab6

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Knicks, Hawks
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,692 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks	40c	1,803$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.47	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Hawks	54c	1,111$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.02	435	43.4%189 W · 246 L	-16.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hawks	58c	1,000$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hawks	57c	999.35$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.72	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks	42c	618.69$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.65	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Knicks	44c	518.18$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Knicks	44c	394.16$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.43	266	51.1%136 W · 130 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hawks	56c	288$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.72	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc9…6786backed Hawks	58c	250$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ae…41afbacked Knicks	46c	230.43$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	50cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Hawks	61c	230$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.7	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Hawks	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	214	40.7%87 W · 127 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Knicks	46c	200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Knicks	39c	109$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.51	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Knicks	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7802…d5b4backed Hawks	57c	90$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.7	107	58.9%63 W · 44 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks	43c	84.65$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.27	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Hawks	54c	73.78$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.78	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f2…1a94backed Hawks	73c	70$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Hawks	58c	68.81$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.81	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Knicks	44c	50.54$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Knicks	46c	49.56$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	86	52.3%45 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Knicks	46c	36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Knicks	44c	29.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Hawks	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac6e…3649backed Hawks	57c	18.62$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.02	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	43cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks	56c	18.05$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.94	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event