NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac1a85c8aabd5e561a592b2c880aa099e075a3d22d0bb148afea9f90bf81f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 53c | 46,873$24,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,122.45 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 47c | 36,719$17,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,258.09 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 57c | 25,000$14,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,749.99 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 11,149$5,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,035.28 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 6,840$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,074.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 43c | 5,060$2,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190.92 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Over | 49c | 3,070$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.73 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 49c | 2,459$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.82 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 50c | 2,061$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.5 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 49c | 2,008$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.84 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 1,311$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.45 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 900$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 614.26$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.84 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 457.18$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 372$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 51c | 326.53$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 319 | 54.5%174 W · 145 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 41.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 31.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Under | 60c | 21.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +12.1wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. KnicksHawks won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 126.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 242.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 244.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 245.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 246.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.