F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59617a3ca0765742add1bc54911d035c3df531736812ee687bc599a7f8f4b6c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,006$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.43 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…559dbacked No | 70c | 1,985$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 62c | 1,579$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,130$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.9 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 29c | 709.33$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 5c | 601$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 58c | 490.4$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…9b98backed Yes | 43c | 468.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 37c | 410.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Yes | 26c | 362.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked No | 58c | 250$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 63c | 216.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…8d05backed Yes | 37c | 216.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 46c | 216.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Yes | 47c | 214.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 53c | 176.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 32c | 171.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 141.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 29c | 118.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 26c | 112.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…c09cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…eedcbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 86.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea1…880dbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…728fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…d845backed Yes | 27c | 46.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked No | 55c | 36.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…0864backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.