MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x596bc8f49c325e2b98102a95e174645ec43eb01a6a0604e9d83cc98d32bbc79b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 2,576$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.56 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 2,567$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,914$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 1,635$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 54c | 1,112$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.24 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Over | 51c | 956.86$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…d2f0backed Under | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 371.51$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.61 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 27c | 284$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 38c | 258$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 47c | 250.24$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 204.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 64c | 194$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 188.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 70c | 180.71$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 62c | 172.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 170.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 76c | 113$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 45c | 98.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 45c | 95.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 52c | 93.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 50.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 64c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 43c | 27.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 26.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…2008backed Over | 45c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 53c | 23.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 56c | 23.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 53c | 19.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.