NFL · resolved market
Shedeur Sanders cut before Week 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5977d40c1095308ae8bfbb502c51e1aec733a9d80400d93421d7293e922e2adc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 13c | 8,502$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.2 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 1,517$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.56 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 1,136$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed No | 78c | 1,007$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 75c | 1,000$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.16 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 14c | 892.41$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 18c | 584$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 12c | 492.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed No | 80c | 430.61$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…b980backed Yes | 9c | 412$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +912.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Yes | 18c | 403.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 10c | 265.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 7c | 219.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 149$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 10c | 120.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed No | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 24c | 52.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…3093backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 74c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.