Fifa International · resolved market
Will Armenia win on 2025-11-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b17b7b2740092a509b3e58ee6bbbd0081f16a747e5af2b29089341c3db1c97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 2c | 16,711$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.26 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 2c | 14,387$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.95 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 1c | 8,529$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 2c | 7,550$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…ee73backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Yes | 2c | 4,679$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 2c | 2,527$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 2c | 2,156$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 2c | 1,935$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e03…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 91 | 18.7%17 W · 74 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked Yes | 2c | 1,562$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,454$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 1,328$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…00b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,104$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…be4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…325dbacked Yes | 2c | 977.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 2c | 938$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…5fa4backed Yes | 2c | 882.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…d4ecbacked Yes | 2c | 805.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac01…2d77backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 438.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 4c | 413.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Armenia win on 2025-11-16?this page
- Will Portugal vs. Armenia end in a draw?No won
- Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.