Fifa International · resolved market
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c138f815042f976092a71455549286e7d4959ec44e5946eaf9b53640ea22f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $594,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 7c | 60,907$4,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,263.48 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 7c | 44,733$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.86 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…122bbacked No | 2c | 27,314$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.28 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 3c | 23,885$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.34 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed No | 6c | 16,668$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.73 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 7c | 14,910$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.67 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…e3d8backed No | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 2c | 8,699$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 6c | 8,589$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.91 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 6c | 8,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 6c | 6,245$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.02 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 6c | 5,936$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.26 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 7c | 5,107$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.4 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 7c | 5,050$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.18 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 6c | 4,951$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.04 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 7c | 3,328$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 4c | 3,146$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked No | 7c | 2,429$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 7c | 2,001$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…eecbbacked No | 1c | 2,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 8c | 1,902$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…e56abacked No | 1c | 1,901$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 1c | 1,735$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…67cdbacked No | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +393.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 6c | 1,350$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 169 | 25.4%43 W · 126 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 2c | 1,266$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…e2ecbacked No | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 6c | 1,069$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 5c | 1,018$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 9c | 989$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…d8adbacked No | 4c | 975.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked No | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…38e0backed No | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 7c | 793.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 6c | 769.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…431abacked No | 6c | 758.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8997…c3bdbacked No | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…3addbacked No | 6c | 699.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…574cbacked No | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 5c | 593.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 8c | 537.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcd…9293backed No | 6c | 533.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…4ce5backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 131 | 12.2%16 W · 115 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 6c | 264.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked No | 9c | 249.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked No | 6c | 249.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 77c | 223.37$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…5487backed No | 6c | 206$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…f116backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…4f95backed No | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 21c | 149.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 8c | 123.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582e…5087backed No | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 120.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16?this page
- Will Armenia win on 2025-11-16?No won
- Will Portugal vs. Armenia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.