Fifa International · resolved market
Will Portugal vs. Armenia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb59795274bd3f4de91e0f4705f81643425101799f6ebbe68e7b23715119f7a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…6f11backed Yes | 0c | 10,650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b82backed Yes | 4c | 7,789$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Yes | 5c | 4,900$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…ee73backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,155$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 17%19 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 5c | 1,738$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,700$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,233$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 7c | 1,006$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…5b48backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 5c | 795$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 6c | 650$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 5c | 622.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…9d27backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 6c | 539$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed Yes | 2c | 538$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 91 | 18.7%17 W · 74 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 5c | 431.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5b…6354backed Yes | 5c | 386.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Yes | 6c | 322.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…5b6dbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 6c | 266.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…b699backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ec…2ec6backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 6c | 248.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 146.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal vs. Armenia end in a draw?this page
- Will Armenia win on 2025-11-16?No won
- Will Portugal win on 2025-11-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.