Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b895f849d97cc5e47754439ec84ded047e4b8dba8d782c9979c8def43b9e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes | 69c | 2,707$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 33c | 1,077$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 36c | 539.69$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 60c | 312.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 275.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 40c | 215.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…eb57backed Yes | 63c | 197.43$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 36c | 182$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 151$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e0…d60cbacked No | 40c | 119.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked No | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 70c | 25.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 45c | 25.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?this page
- Will AS Saint-Etienne achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will ESTAC Troyes achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?Yes won
- Will FC Annecy achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Montpellier HSC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Red Star FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Rodez AF achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?No won
- Will Stade de Reims achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026-27 season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.