Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bd5c8614018ea302ea91ce777327f2e9ca4294cf7816f9c4778f0a3e99f9e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 394.53$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.46 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 340.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 300.21$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.54 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 58c | 293.3$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 287.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 237.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 229.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…8819backed No | 71c | 209.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 26c | 167.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 24c | 164.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 148$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 135$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed No | 8c | 133.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 132.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 23c | 114.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 89.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 32c | 89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 59c | 67.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 65.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 28c | 63.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 61.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 57.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 54.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 49.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 20c | 48.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 31c | 46.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 42.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 41.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 39.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 38.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 38.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 30c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 30.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 27.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 26.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 72c | 26.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 18.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 18.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 18.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 70c | 16.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 14.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 71c | 14.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.