Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc2f4d5c20f435f4b2545578fe372254a3dad05c4be2b76795b7d303796ff83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 849.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 54c | 708.44$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 41c | 317.72$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 288.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 286.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 253.98$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 237.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 223.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…286bbacked No | 51c | 223$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 207.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 204.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 48c | 186.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 59c | 182.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 148.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 148$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 46c | 147.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 142.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 43c | 136.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 135$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 126.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 125.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed No | 72c | 110.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 104.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 97.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 83.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 43c | 78.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 75.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 59c | 68.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 67.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 67.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 57.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 36c | 56.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 56.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 28c | 53.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 46c | 48.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 47.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 47.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 70c | 43.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 42.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 42.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 45c | 42.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 42c | 41.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 39.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 60c | 34.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 45c | 33.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 51c | 33.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 33.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 55c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 26.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 46c | 25.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 60c | 25.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 51c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 67c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 58c | 17.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 75c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.