NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Bucks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59e51ef46151c58f17d68b2796fbc7813244c2134454a8e43d61c72049c62c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7435…a620backed Cavaliers | 55c | 3,638$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Bucks | 45c | 3,555$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Bucks | 36c | 1,664$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.75 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Bucks | 50c | 828.84$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.65 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Cavaliers | 51c | 772.96$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.11 | 381 | 43%164 W · 217 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bucks | 48c | 584.22$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.64 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Cavaliers | 48c | 555$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.6 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Bucks | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Cavaliers | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Cavaliers | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Bucks | 12c | 335$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef5b…0780backed Bucks | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Cavaliers | 52c | 293$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…2d5dbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 213.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bucks | 49c | 203.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bucks | 51c | 196.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 893 | 53%473 W · 420 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cavaliers | 51c | 189.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Cavaliers | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Bucks | 6c | 164.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Bucks | 30c | 118.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bucks | 46c | 100.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…53d6backed Cavaliers | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bucks | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Bucks | 47c | 98.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Cavaliers | 35c | 96.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Bucks | 65c | 89.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Cavaliers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 354 | 38.1%135 W · 219 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bucks | 39c | 54.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 433 | 21.2%92 W · 341 L | -15.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Cavaliers | 56c | 53.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Bucks | 41c | 52.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Bucks | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Bucks | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b83…e63dbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Cavaliers | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Cavaliers | 54c | 37.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Cavaliers | 54c | 37.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Cavaliers | 47c | 35.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 367 | 48.2%177 W · 190 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Cavaliers | 58c | 34.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bucks | 47c | 29.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Bucks | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…f0f9backed Cavaliers | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…7b2cbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…d2febacked Bucks | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…87b6backed Cavaliers | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27c…9ebbbacked Bucks | 51c | 19.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…ba21backed Cavaliers | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.