Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59f3eedb34ac735601e48544ead572bdc777315739ce37cd2edc933312277f03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 18c | 353.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 265.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 183.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 182.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 115$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 35c | 112.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 100.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 97.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 84.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 29c | 80.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 76.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ce1dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 69.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 68.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 63.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 59.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 56.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 69c | 52.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 30c | 48.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 47.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 30c | 46.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 46.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 41.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 65c | 31.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 27.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 65c | 26.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…7c5dbacked No | 77c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 79c | 18.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.