Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf0966e83d054ac80be138c33ee9ec203ee93e0258bb6477dc58a08c771eb92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 22c | 557.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 63c | 260.9$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 260.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 206.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 176.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 176.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 165.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 60c | 151.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 24c | 133.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 133.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 123.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 120.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 103.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 100.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 18c | 94.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 94.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 34c | 82.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 15c | 76.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 41c | 74.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 73.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 61c | 65.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 62.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 75c | 60.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 58.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 30c | 51.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 50.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 49.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes | 76c | 47.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 65c | 46.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 32c | 46.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 47c | 43.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 60c | 43.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 42.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 55c | 41.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 65c | 40.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 40.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 59c | 40.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 32c | 39.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…aba9backed Yes | 53c | 37.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0e…1d8bbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 62c | 30.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 53c | 30.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…f248backed Yes | 64c | 27.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 27.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 62c | 26.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 20.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 53c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…4d51backed Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 79c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.