Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c8ddc6110077b171b49d11fbcdeeb6a93583298c7d0aac7778fb539653b078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 2c | 1,049$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 20c | 565.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 14c | 455.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 40c | 422.52$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 9c | 297.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 279.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 248.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 212.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe452…4de3backed Yes | 19c | 185.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…894bbacked Yes | 12c | 171.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 170.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 154.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 141.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 140.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 30c | 119.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 104.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 77c | 95.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 92.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 72c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…add8backed Yes | 16c | 83.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 71c | 70.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 16c | 66.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 16c | 64.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 58.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 26c | 57.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 55.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 25c | 54.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 42c | 50.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 33c | 40.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 57c | 40.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 25c | 40.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 39.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 38.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 70c | 30.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 77c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 65c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 42c | 26.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 80c | 23.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 76c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…69adbacked No | 78c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.