MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a2a42fc69748c071c83903c50e22f66e29f663d7e6beb9379e0d1a4863055a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 4,915$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Mets | 61c | 4,008$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 70c | 4,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 3,989$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Miami Marlins | 2c | 2,068$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Miami Marlins | 1c | 1,941$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 1,279$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 65c | 1,098$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d96…a48dbacked New York Mets | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Miami Marlins | 15c | 998.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 930.53$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Mets | 34c | 817.94$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.2 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked New York Mets | 65c | 625$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.29 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 528.31$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.87 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Miami Marlins | 2c | 504.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed New York Mets | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 499.62$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed New York Mets | 58c | 430$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.59 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 35c | 345.89$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed New York Mets | 35c | 286$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed New York Mets | 43c | 279.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.02 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 27c | 211.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed New York Mets | 37c | 185.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 171.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 32c | 169.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.34 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 159.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 157.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked New York Mets | 33c | 152.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 63c | 108.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets | 43c | 90.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed New York Mets | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 70.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed New York Mets | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…5a99backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed New York Mets | 35c | 43.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 28.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 27.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed New York Mets | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 16.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 15.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Mets | 72c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 15.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 16.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.