Tennis · resolved market
Francavilla: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Clement Chidekh
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a6e8e059ff0157860a3b4a996064ec410692be782ec04b1c276c95045ada1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clement Chidekhof Alvaro Guillen Meza, Clement Chidekh
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 3c | 8,387$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.46 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 7c | 2,346$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.77 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…a1a6backed Clement Chidekh | 38c | 1,448$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.2 | 272 | 48.2%131 W · 141 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 57c | 1,022$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.88 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cee…0d1ebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 57c | 1,005$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.5 | 188 | 49.5%93 W · 95 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 59c | 923.19$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.86 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Clement Chidekh | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 6c | 631.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 630 | 52.4%330 W · 300 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 41c | 488.82$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.66 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Clement Chidekh | 53c | 421.21$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.18 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.15 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 30c | 333.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 6c | 320.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 283 | 48.4%137 W · 146 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed Clement Chidekh | 36c | 263.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 567 | 57.1%324 W · 243 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…9326backed Clement Chidekh | 39c | 257.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.95 | 277 | 39%108 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 54c | 254.68$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.86 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Clement Chidekh | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 375 | 34.9%131 W · 244 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 63c | 235$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 16c | 234.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 57c | 223.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…0f1ebacked Clement Chidekh | 40c | 221.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Clement Chidekh | 33c | 216.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Clement Chidekh | 50c | 147.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 553 | 60.4%334 W · 219 L | +32.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Clement Chidekh | 48c | 137.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Clement Chidekh | 54c | 134.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Clement Chidekh | 39c | 128.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Clement Chidekh | 40c | 126.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…b4b6backed Clement Chidekh | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 185 | 45.4%84 W · 101 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Clement Chidekh | 42c | 112.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Clement Chidekh | 51c | 105.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Clement Chidekh | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,102 | 52.2%575 W · 527 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 49c | 97.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -12.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Clement Chidekh | 44c | 97.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 96.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…7399backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 41c | 96.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 67c | 83.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 50c | 75.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Clement Chidekh | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 177 | 58.8%104 W · 73 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 61.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…5294backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 68c | 61.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Clement Chidekh | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 749 | 55.1%413 W · 336 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 28c | 54.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…8211backed Clement Chidekh | 72c | 47.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 704 | 56.8%400 W · 304 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Clement Chidekh | 43c | 46.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Clement Chidekh | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 153 | 37.9%58 W · 95 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Clement Chidekh | 45c | 41.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Clement Chidekh | 37c | 33.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | -74.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c6…737abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -25.0wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 36c | 31.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Clement Chidekh | 42c | 31.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…95c4backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1972…9dbabacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 40c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ff…e3dfbacked Clement Chidekh | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Clement Chidekh | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Clement Chidekh | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,135 | 56%1,195 W · 940 L | +41.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Clement Chidekh | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 866 | 47.9%415 W · 451 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…970abacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Clement Chidekh | 57c | 26.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Clement Chidekh | 42c | 25.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 603 | 55.4%334 W · 269 L | +19.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Clement Chidekh | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…c3bebacked Clement Chidekh | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 53c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Clement Chidekh | 46c | 22.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 315 | 63.5%200 W · 115 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 61c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…cebfbacked Clement Chidekh | 72c | 16.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 676 | 78.7%532 W · 144 L | +49.5wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d3…6a69backed Alvaro Guillen Meza | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.