Fifa International · resolved market
Will France vs. Ukraine end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a78ba51c053a8c761fd4d7de4a40ce2a022aae59ef1c25451d5fcdcb6fefe83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 13c | 4,585$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.77 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,932$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 11c | 1,555$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes | 13c | 1,132$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 13c | 941.02$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…7420backed Yes | 21c | 858.03$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…7e27backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…5d61backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…f958backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…d7ecbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…31b6backed Yes | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 13c | 312$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 12c | 249.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 12c | 243.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…fb62backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…98b8backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Yes | 12c | 149.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 149.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 17c | 145.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…1805backed Yes | 13c | 126.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…1c13backed Yes | 13c | 117.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 18c | 112.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -83%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 12c | 110.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c89…58a5backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2a49backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France vs. Ukraine end in a draw?this page
- Will France win on 2025-11-13?Yes won
- Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.