Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a79136aa9b4d0464eba5c49d38bad7a44077545757152dce78fd0ebc2fea2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,141 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 18c | 1,449$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.1 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 22c | 1,383$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.51 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…615cbacked Over | 26c | 623.96$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb056…40e1backed Under | 74c | 623.96$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 19c | 500.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.51 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Under | 43c | 500$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 19c | 436.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.96 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 22c | 250$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 45c | 222.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 58c | 172.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 22c | 124.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 19c | 118.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 22c | 90.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…70aebacked Over | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 56c | 44.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 78c | 37.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Under | 80c | 33.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 42c | 27.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 79c | 20.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 78c | 19.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5this page
- New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)New York City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.