Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a7c7389fea396904a9a809b79ca3033e78b935208c583f68e5cb63b3db10201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amaru Gamingof Amaru Gaming, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Amaru Gaming | 20c | 3,503$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,802.5 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Amaru Gaming | 31c | 2,970$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.7 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Yakutou Brothers | 64c | 2,300$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.99 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Amaru Gaming | 32c | 1,783$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.45 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Amaru Gaming | 73c | 1,714$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.7 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yakutou Brothers | 42c | 1,592$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.01 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Amaru Gaming | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…86d0backed Yakutou Brothers | 68c | 1,478$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Amaru Gaming | 33c | 1,030$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.8 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 8c | 1,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Amaru Gaming | 70c | 941.47$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.44 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…1df1backed Amaru Gaming | 67c | 870$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Amaru Gaming | 20c | 714.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.8 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Amaru Gaming | 61c | 708.04$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.35 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Amaru Gaming | 20c | 675$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Yakutou Brothers | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed Yakutou Brothers | 36c | 508.79$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.58 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Amaru Gaming | 14c | 356.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Amaru Gaming | 43c | 346.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Yakutou Brothers | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yakutou Brothers | 48c | 286.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Amaru Gaming | 75c | 276.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Amaru Gaming | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…4152backed Yakutou Brothers | 76c | 267.29$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 30c | 158.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…4a75backed Amaru Gaming | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Amaru Gaming | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Amaru Gaming | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Yakutou Brothers | 54c | 91.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yakutou Brothers | 31c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Yakutou Brothers | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Amaru Gaming | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 79c | 48.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Amaru Gaming | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Amaru Gaming | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Yakutou Brothers | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c8…c8b0backed Amaru Gaming | 77c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yakutou Brothers | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Yakutou Brothers | 48c | 27.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…3b93backed Yakutou Brothers | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3)Amaru Gaming won
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.