Earnings · resolved market
Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aa2773e6fdc50609e285e07cf005e76fa9dc965849838fc16db1b3b974a7a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 63c | 549.39$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.76 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 22c | 480.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 36c | 410.77$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 22c | 410.64$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 25c | 371.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 70c | 299.96$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 78c | 296.41$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 29c | 268.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 23c | 254.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 15c | 192.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 28c | 180.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 175.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…f2b8backed Yes | 74c | 135.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed No | 38c | 126.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad5…583ebacked Yes | 69c | 117.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 26c | 115.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed Yes | 73c | 106.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed No | 23c | 88.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…5fd0backed No | 18c | 84.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 21c | 79.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 23c | 67.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 79c | 67.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 77c | 65.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked No | 40c | 53.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a4…b980backed No | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…ebd1backed Yes | 76c | 42.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 65c | 40.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…93c1backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…4bfcbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 75c | 39.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…1133backed Yes | 71c | 33.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…754cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed Yes | 74c | 25.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 77c | 23.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…f00dbacked Yes | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a8…1aecbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…9742backed Yes | 70c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…327fbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…6fd3backed Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…e475backed Yes | 68c | 17.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0bbabacked Yes | 70c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed0…85a6backed Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.