South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-03-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5adaacd89e45dd2032444e11243ad15cbc9f893a2288d63f4bf09a765a10070d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,587 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 6,538$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 15c | 4,432$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.62 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 4,366$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.74 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 79c | 1,655$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.15 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 1,209$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 10c | 1,120$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 16c | 352.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 18c | 295.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 14c | 276.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 15c | 246.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 236.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 18c | 212$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 12c | 201.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 15c | 183.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Yes | 20c | 181.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Yes | 12c | 172.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 12c | 166.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 18c | 149.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 55c | 141$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 18c | 122.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c8d1backed Yes | 12c | 115.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Yes | 18c | 107.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +78%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 39c | 107.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 103.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…cf56backed Yes | 15c | 101.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaed…88c4backed Yes | 11c | 97.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 79.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Yes | 17c | 75.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 42c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 18c | 74.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 40c | 68.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 18c | 58.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 29c | 47.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…421bbacked No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed No | 75c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-03-11?this page
- Will EC Bahia vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?Yes won
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-03-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.