CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae0432452c49bf0935d5f2b1cbb8d1e0a22da3d132d7d935b0685339ba7a669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Over | 56c | 2,833$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Under | 44c | 2,624$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.65 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 46c | 899.45$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.71 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Over | 57c | 421.07$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.01 | 752 | 45.5%342 W · 410 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 43c | 401.07$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.61 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…7411backed Over | 54c | 358.73$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…db45backed Under | 44c | 340.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed Over | 54c | 222$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Under | 45c | 218.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.36 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Under | 46c | 217$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 212 | 47.6%101 W · 111 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5453…a834backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2a…723ebacked Over | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Over | 55c | 164.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 389 | 45.8%178 W · 211 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…be99backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d75…3f15backed Over | 55c | 105.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Under | 45c | 100.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f0…0c9fbacked Over | 54c | 78.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…463bbacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…7228backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Over | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…a37ebacked Over | 53c | 55.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…80a3backed Under | 61c | 40.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2311…99ecbacked Under | 55c | 39.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2a11backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…42a2backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 46c | 32.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8d…c980backed Over | 54c | 26.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Under | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit - Map 2 WinnerVitality won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Vitality (+1.5)Vitality won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.