MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5afdbcfac1a1dfa663bb7f8ec56dd257711bce5999b9b3da553c1cca4b9cf080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 20,896$11,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,985.33 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 20,000$8,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,600 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 1,932$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.59 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 509.78$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.3 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 499.96$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.98 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 460$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 393.59$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 369.39$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 224.08$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…bd08backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 136.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 101.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 96.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Seattle Mariners | 17c | 89.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 87.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 82.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 68.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 59.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 54.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 51.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 49.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 43.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 36.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 28.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 27.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 24.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 23.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.