MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd52557fdc21a83f554715c0e3949d5112a79eceff17735999af69e6bbbf4eb14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 4,621$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 48c | 3,642$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.85 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 51c | 2,950$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.75 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,541$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.06 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 792.94$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.54 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 683.39$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.53 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 580.62$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 49c | 542.29$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.57 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 8c | 387.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 54c | 271.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 261.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 49c | 236.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.7 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 223.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 48c | 196.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 182.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 52c | 158.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 158.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 116.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 51c | 85.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 75.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 49c | 65.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 59.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 56.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 55.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 37c | 49.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 46.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 60c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 77c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Over | 52c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 49c | 32.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 77c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.