Tennis · resolved market
Darderi vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b2b6f1bf4ebbca2514f71f2177f92aa2d9b6b83d681fe7f329d6a3e67e4f3aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under 3.5 | 77c | 2,872$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.06 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 3.5 | 21c | 2,339$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.85 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 3.5 | 72c | 2,297$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.09 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Over 3.5 | 16c | 2,105$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.3 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under 3.5 | 79c | 1,923$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.37 | 454 | 57.9%263 W · 191 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over 3.5 | 27c | 1,810$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.34 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over 3.5 | 23c | 1,212$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.62 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under 3.5 | 80c | 1,054$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.8 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over 3.5 | 29c | 948.28$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under 3.5 | 75c | 864.61$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.15 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Under 3.5 | 78c | 385$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Under 3.5 | 78c | 310.18$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Under 3.5 | 25c | 262.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Under 3.5 | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over 3.5 | 23c | 247.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…3398backed Over 3.5 | 24c | 244.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under 3.5 | 70c | 234.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…05b1backed Over 3.5 | 34c | 201.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…6cc8backed Under 3.5 | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Under 3.5 | 77c | 198$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…141ebacked Under 3.5 | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…6965backed Over 3.5 | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Under 3.5 | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…a2a9backed Over 3.5 | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1b…94b2backed Under 3.5 | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over 3.5 | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Over 3.5 | 50c | 75.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under 3.5 | 79c | 73.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over 3.5 | 21c | 66.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over 3.5 | 36c | 42.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Over 3.5 | 25c | 40.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Under 3.5 | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef51…f58dbacked Over 3.5 | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Under 3.5 | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Darderi vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Australian Open Men's: Luciano Darderi vs Jannik SinnerSinner won
- Darderi vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Darderi vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Darderi vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.