Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc24b9e2be4c94dcbc775f5ed73ef502913f216eb29f061b54badb48c742de168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Darderi, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $734,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $834,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $734,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Darderi | 2c | 140,635$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.62 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Darderi | 4c | 120,690$4,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,467.12 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Darderi | 2c | 67,934$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.6 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Darderi | 6c | 22,305$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.59 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Darderi | 4c | 20,767$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.94 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Darderi | 4c | 19,953$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.1 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Darderi | 1c | 10,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Darderi | 3c | 8,147$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.74 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Darderi | 4c | 8,075$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.79 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Darderi | 3c | 7,110$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.63 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Darderi | 4c | 6,664$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Darderi | 4c | 6,459$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…df70backed Darderi | 4c | 6,284$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Darderi | 2c | 5,709$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Darderi | 3c | 5,461$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Darderi | 3c | 5,226$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Darderi | 3c | 5,059$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Darderi | 2c | 5,047$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Darderi | 1c | 2,550$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Darderi | 3c | 2,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 271 | 32.1%87 W · 184 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Darderi | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Darderi | 3c | 1,892$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Darderi | 3c | 1,795$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Darderi | 4c | 1,795$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Darderi | 3c | 1,622$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Darderi | 4c | 1,567$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Darderi | 3c | 1,396$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…6ed9backed Darderi | 4c | 1,352$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Darderi | 3c | 1,323$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Darderi | 4c | 1,284$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…5e28backed Darderi | 3c | 1,193$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Darderi | 4c | 1,176$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…7553backed Darderi | 4c | 1,159$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…6ea1backed Darderi | 5c | 1,131$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Darderi | 4c | 1,075$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Darderi | 4c | 1,009$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…caa9backed Darderi | 4c | 1,006$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Darderi | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Darderi | 4c | 999.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf88…556ebacked Darderi | 3c | 970$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Darderi | 4c | 930.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…0c3dbacked Darderi | 4c | 840$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…7ad1backed Darderi | 3c | 833.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Darderi | 4c | 796.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…be48backed Darderi | 3c | 750$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c0…8ea1backed Darderi | 4c | 744.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…d184backed Darderi | 3c | 729.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Darderi | 4c | 707$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Darderi | 4c | 707$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Darderi | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 352 | 48.6%171 W · 181 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Darderi | 4c | 611$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…60e2backed Darderi | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Darderi | 5c | 547.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Darderi | 4c | 532.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Darderi | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Darderi | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Darderi | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…5d3dbacked Darderi | 4c | 492.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…4fd2backed Darderi | 4c | 484.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…be43backed Darderi | 3c | 479.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Darderi | 3c | 418.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Darderi | 5c | 400.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 26.8%77 W · 210 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Darderi | 4c | 393.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…0857backed Darderi | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…1109backed Darderi | 4c | 366.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…4400backed Darderi | 4c | 355.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Darderi | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…b859backed Darderi | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…359bbacked Darderi | 4c | 334$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Darderi | 3c | 333.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Darderi | 4c | 307.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cc…b660backed Darderi | 5c | 300.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Darderi | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Darderi | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…4600backed Darderi | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34dc…3cdcbacked Darderi | 5c | 201.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinnerthis page
- Darderi vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Darderi vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Darderi vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Darderi vs SinnerSinner won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.