Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b549c923c8c0698da4adee8e6ed27076caf02f3acf29f2cc92b5577c0a27091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed No | 35c | 1,130$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 814.57$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 67c | 747.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.66 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 33c | 729.19$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.04 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 33c | 635.42$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.69 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Yes | 67c | 537.08$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…505abacked No | 43c | 464.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d670backed No | 8c | 415.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 58c | 414.19$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.55 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 33c | 234.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 57c | 186.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 34c | 158.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 66c | 149.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 33c | 118$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…51f7backed Yes | 63c | 101.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 58c | 89.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…b505backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 34c | 79.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Yes | 67c | 42.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 67c | 41.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked No | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…3483backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…f954backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…b190backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.