Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c444b116c2f991d87840f1448e880108170de3060aa5a6b759d7e3739dac03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Under | 34c | 19,299$6,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,539.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 10,323$6,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,509.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 66c | 3,643$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.47 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 67c | 2,981$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.26 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Over | 71c | 2,013$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.77 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 35c | 1,280$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…7b54backed Over | 6c | 763$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 66c | 757.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.08 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 59c | 704.08$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.08 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 546.3$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.69 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c4…a218backed Under | 51c | 394.04$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 50c | 241.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.94 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 67c | 238.87$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 63c | 143.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 127.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 66c | 108.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Over | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 67c | 53.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Over | 58c | 52.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…5f03backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 66c | 34.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 35c | 29.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…195fbacked Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…fb59backed Over | 50c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 65c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…4605backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 58cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.