TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Abidjan: Michael Geerts vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Constantin Bittoun Kouzmineof Michael Geerts, Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,931 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6aee…fad4backed Michael Geerts79c14,685$11,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,565.4724557.6%141 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine33c14,152$4,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,498.018,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Michael Geerts54c7,427$4,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,031.6711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Michael Geerts61c6,517$3,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,975.5631234.6%108 W · 204 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba9…f183backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine34c5,862$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,866.463522.9%8 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine53c5,633$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.373948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf99e…4d03backed Michael Geerts1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine40c4,797$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.2612146.3%56 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Michael Geerts38c4,197$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.5529241.8%122 W · 170 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ba…001dbacked Michael Geerts4c3,200$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1394932.7%16 W · 33 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+131.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x276b…c0c8backed Michael Geerts5c3,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403542.9%15 W · 20 L+10.7wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+212%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa56f…ee5fbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine41c2,327$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.888353%44 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f6…55aabacked Michael Geerts5c2,200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1044930.6%15 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.21per pick10cpaid+156.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2480…c148backed Michael Geerts5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick12cpaid+92.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine12c1,600$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40813450%67 W · 67 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf26f…8f93backed Michael Geerts3c1,560$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.43619.4%7 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+57.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Michael Geerts74c1,543$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.044,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine31c1,529$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.922,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Michael Geerts3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45270%0 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked Michael Geerts3c1,117$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.85280%0 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Michael Geerts63c1,012$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.993,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine12c1,000$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine12c999.97$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9839534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine23c837.44$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.638,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine37c700$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4412,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Michael Geerts3c610.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.211389.4%13 W · 125 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine18c599.78$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.365,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Michael Geerts3c562$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.214,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Michael Geerts63c550.47$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.818439.1%72 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc118…54c2backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine14c515.77$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.651030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+76.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked Michael Geerts19c506$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8818132.6%59 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e88…9b64backed Michael Geerts8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Michael Geerts2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine14c474.2$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.8132851.8%170 W · 158 L+1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine40c472.95$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.686,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Michael Geerts12c458$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.454124.4%10 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine12c411.95$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.5235436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine34c387.2$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.9597141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine47c382.5$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.584,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x013d…0574backed Michael Geerts4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15280%0 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Michael Geerts4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15260%0 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Michael Geerts55c367.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3873549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine53c366.81$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.451,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Michael Geerts56c358.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7395050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Michael Geerts23c346$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2824632.9%81 W · 165 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Michael Geerts9c341.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0463746%293 W · 344 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine50c337.58$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.081,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine13c280.71$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.041,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Michael Geerts22c253$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8429039.3%114 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine38c252.92$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.831,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine39c248.96$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0460943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine41c238.41$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.911752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Michael Geerts51c232.9$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.784,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine10c219.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.1930131.9%96 W · 205 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Michael Geerts59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1189,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine14c183.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.2528255%155 W · 127 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Michael Geerts55c174.67$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5674346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Michael Geerts23c173$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2445235.8%162 W · 290 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Michael Geerts23c173$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6448235.9%173 W · 309 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Michael Geerts23c173$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6425737%95 W · 162 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Michael Geerts53c172.07$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5357953.7%311 W · 268 L+19.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine10c160.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.567,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine29c152.86$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.836,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Michael Geerts25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3839941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Michael Geerts67c144.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.941,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Michael Geerts14c125$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.569438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Michael Geerts57c121.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.243750.3%220 W · 217 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Michael Geerts49c108.89$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.368543.5%37 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Michael Geerts56c102.85$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0720043.5%87 W · 113 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Michael Geerts49c96.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.517741.8%74 W · 103 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Michael Geerts73c86.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.11,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab7…9451backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine20c79.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.322231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e50…dd7dbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine15c77.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.867963.3%50 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine36c76.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.843,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine32c74.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9628454.9%156 W · 128 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c8…bac9backed Michael Geerts56c71.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.88947.2%42 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Michael Geerts61c69.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3373350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2fe…09c9backed Michael Geerts50c67.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6322049.5%109 W · 111 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.81,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f86…ef4ebacked Michael Geerts55c55.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.799240.2%37 W · 55 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine26c54.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9430931.1%96 W · 213 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Michael Geerts47c52.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.540548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Michael Geerts21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.79353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc46…a54bbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine45c45.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine32c39.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6663052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine32c39.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6560355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Michael Geerts63c32.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7537058.6%217 W · 153 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73e…576abacked Michael Geerts62c32.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine32c32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7643558.6%255 W · 180 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine36c31.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3356817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xeec7…ba8dbacked Michael Geerts61c31.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-64.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Michael Geerts67c28.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.148072.5%58 W · 22 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine52c28.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4520039%78 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…8e8fbacked Michael Geerts50c27.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5810755.1%59 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108c…122dbacked Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine52c22.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.854367.4%29 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Michael Geerts49c21.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6623759.1%140 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28af…7de0backed Michael Geerts70c18.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.224072.5%29 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.