Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9dcd9e9224c060db1645e4a5eddcfc3eccbc506b32909b418eeb671d54a854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedbb…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,147$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 410$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 334.46$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 63c | 311.47$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 60c | 272.67$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 209.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 206$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 180.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 115.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 101.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 79.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 65c | 70.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 59.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 52.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 36c | 44.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 42.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed Yes | 50c | 38.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 37.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 37.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 34.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 28.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 68c | 25.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 59c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.