Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4c30260c8bd240af8f770ef25aa9b9c23faec1630ba4975262a635d1122265d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,422$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 1c | 1,370$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 380.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 330.37$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 242$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 25c | 224.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 19c | 174.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 162.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 154.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 23c | 131.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 123.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 75c | 88.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 74.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 69c | 61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 33c | 50.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 42.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 37.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 56c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 36.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 25.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 24.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 62c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 69c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.