Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bb727ecfdc346a5e88762d055f36b897af5869dc05cbc888aa67a17020917e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 32c | 314.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 207.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 180.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 147.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 145.65$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 68c | 131.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 101.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 94.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 92.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 87.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 84.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 80.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 28c | 71.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 65.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 65.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 64.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 27c | 58.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 55.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 54.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 53.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 78c | 41.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…51adbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 67c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.