Tweets · resolved market
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bd2f22a2974944a2e1892e06305a8230b8d87fa02450a7d862206a5b78f32f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 77c | 582$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…dcd1backed No | 22c | 483.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 22c | 410$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 75c | 362.42$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 75c | 282.93$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 79c | 253.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 79c | 196$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed No | 27c | 184$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 22c | 182.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 23c | 153.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…9e7cbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed No | 17c | 89.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 88.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2e…59d1backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 72c | 30.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…37adbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 73c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.