South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Unión win on 2026-08-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bd7e8e6c769a1100279507d6eed82aceecec5991fde416d609d0c9a231f2328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 10c | 2,321$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.63 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 11c | 1,387$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.19 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 10c | 1,101$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.9 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Yes | 14c | 1,097$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.67 | 46 | 80.4%37 W · 9 L | +14.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 59c | 540$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.85 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 13c | 387.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.39 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 48c | 360$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.4 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 40c | 359.08$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.31 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 59c | 348.84$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.26 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 14c | 344.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.11 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Yes | 41c | 226.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 64c | 195$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Yes | 55c | 194.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 169.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed Yes | 38c | 132.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 71c | 132.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 11c | 117.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 29c | 96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 14c | 89.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 37c | 84.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 14c | 73.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 45c | 67.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 42c | 61.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…4d66backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 67c | 46.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 41c | 40.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 69c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-08-21?this page
- Will CA Aldosivi vs. CA Unión end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-08-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.