Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c097e640c868c0cfa497402cf3999a1f7718c0f5689f4e81fa530c0587a0d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 579.97$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 19c | 373.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 284.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 72c | 271$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 28c | 255.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 220.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 31c | 156.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 39c | 141.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 9c | 139.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 129.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 128.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 80c | 125.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 19c | 105.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…ea18backed Yes | 47c | 103.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 100.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 27c | 100.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 57c | 89.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 58c | 85.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 35c | 82.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 63c | 79.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 73.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 54c | 69.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 66.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 25c | 60.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 79c | 54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 34c | 52.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 80c | 47.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 51c | 46.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 36c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 52c | 38.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 76c | 37.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 33.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 33.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 38c | 32.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 30.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 53c | 27.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 61c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 65c | 23.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 57c | 23.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 73c | 20.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 20.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…5219backed Yes | 79c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 69c | 17.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 69c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 65c | 15.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 80c | 15.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…fd3fbacked No | 77c | 14.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 78cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 73c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.