Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3ab74c01335bcb607119765c94a2391ca9b940c1d335f01d485d9db727d60b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 1,146$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…ea18backed Yes | 4c | 1,139$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 7c | 637$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 72c | 443.91$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 388.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 262.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 39c | 254.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 56c | 179.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 161.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 11c | 145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 120.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 119.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 24c | 117.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 36c | 111.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 110.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 109.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 59c | 102.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 102.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 27c | 100.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 18c | 92.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 88.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…25febacked Yes | 29c | 79.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 74.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 76c | 73.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 33c | 73.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 72.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 69.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 73c | 66.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 55c | 64.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 57.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 36c | 51.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 48.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…c2d0backed Yes | 27c | 46.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 46.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 45c | 42.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 33c | 40.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 40.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 35c | 34.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 33.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 57c | 32.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…f447backed Yes | 46c | 23.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 71c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 68c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.