South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c96bec2c88addfdf547d22515680cb416c691cf0d47634edeb35f369cf09f07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 42c | 639.8$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.04 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 76c | 565.25$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903e…2829backed Yes | 20c | 500.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 461.12$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked No | 62c | 324.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 268.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 37c | 241.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 29c | 161.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 60c | 158$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 28c | 145$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 46c | 145$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 139.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 77c | 113.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 20c | 102.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 100.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…1a64backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 71c | 73.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 49c | 68.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 44c | 56.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 29c | 52.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 69c | 45.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 73c | 38.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 31.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 63c | 30.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 66c | 30.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed No | 77c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 71c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 70c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked No | 72c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-03?No won
- Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.