AI · resolved market
ChatGPT o3 released by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9a076049b295e850df9468539fcc55ea7156b99efdc02d4ec6f58dedba6438
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 66c | 1,609$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.84 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 15c | 1,100$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 948.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.87 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…aeb5backed No | 36c | 938.6$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…3863backed No | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58df…0e05backed No | 17c | 450.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 20c | 440.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 79c | 429.01$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x631a…73cabacked No | 37c | 417.81$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 400$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 38c | 394.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 4c | 380.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 63c | 317.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 37c | 271$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a9…e93dbacked No | 15c | 220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabda…9348backed Yes | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 8c | 190.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd88…5bdcbacked Yes | 63c | 140.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 65c | 139.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…6be8backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 35c | 102.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed No | 37c | 95.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 13c | 89.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 36c | 81.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +605.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 35c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…50d9backed Yes | 65c | 51.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…cd51backed No | 37c | 45.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 63c | 29.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1994…09eebacked Yes | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.